The Week Ahead – The BoE, BoJ, the FOMC, Economic Data, and Geopolitics in Focus

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include 2nd quarter house price figures on Tuesday and August’s employment figures on Thursday.

Expect the employment numbers to have the greatest impact. We have yet to hear of the RBA talk of negative rates. Dire numbers, following the 2nd quarter GDP numbers, could raise the prospects of further easing.

From the RBA, the monetary policy meeting minutes are due out on Tuesday, with the RBA Bulletin on Thursday.

Any talk of further monetary policy support and gloomy sentiment towards the economy would weigh on the Aussie.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.03% to $0.7284.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s another quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include 2nd quarter current account figures on Wednesday and 2nd quarter GDP numbers on Thursday.

The markets will be looking at the GDP numbers to get a sense of whether the RBNZ needs to make a near-term move. These are 2nd quarter numbers, however, so we can expect the markets to be forgiving to an extent.

Following the FED’s shift in monetary policy, central banks will need to douse any bullish demand…

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.82% to $0.6666.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include August trade data due out on Wednesday and inflation figures on Friday.

The main event, however, is the BoJ’s interest rate decision on Thursday. What’s next for Japan, as the economy struggles to find its feet?

We have heard frequently from the BoJ, stating its willingness to support. Until now, however, there appears little that the BoJ can do to spur growth.

On the political front, the Liberal Democratic Party leadership vote will take place on Monday. The winner of the election will serve out Abe’s remaining term.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.08% to ¥106.16 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

Key stats include August fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales figures due out on Tuesday.

With little else for the markets to consider in the week, expect industrial production and retail sales to be the key drivers.

Beijing is looking from within for an economic rebound, giving retail sales greater influence than usual.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up 0.12% to CNY6.8344 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

UK Politics

The Pound took a beating last week. Expect Brexit to remain a key driver in the week ahead. From last week, news of a free trade agreement with Japan will be Pound positive. Progress with the U.S on a Brexit deal will be needed, however, for the Pound to avoid any further downside.

U.S – China

It’s all in the U.S President’s hands in the week ahead, as Trump continues to rile Beijing.

Beijing agreed to ramp up imports and stick to the phase 1 agreement, which has limited the impact of Trump’s targeting on Chinese companies. A continued focus and attack on Chinese companies may eventually draw a retaliatory response, however.

U.S Politics

And finally, the U.S Stimulus Package that has failed to make it through. Chatter from the weekend suggests that there is little chance of the package being voted in before the Presidential Election.

With unemployment still at exceptionally high levels, expect the markets to be even more sensitive to the retail sales figures.


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