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German and French Economic Data Weigh on the EUR

It was a busy start to the day on the Eurozone economic calendar today.

The German economy was back in focus ahead of the European open this morning, with stats from France and Italy also on the docket.

Germany

Industrial production fell by 1.6% in February, month-on-month, following a revised 2% decline in January. Economists had forecast a 1.5% rise.

According to Destatis,

  • Production in industry excluding energy and construction was down 1.8%.
  • Within industry, the production of capital goods slid by 3.2%, with the production of intermediate goods falling by 1.0%.
  • The production of consumer goods increased by 0.2%.
  • Outside industry, energy production was down 1.0%, with the production of construction falling 1.3%.
  • Compared with February 2020, the month before the intro of COVID-19 restrictions, production was down 6.4%.

In February, Germany’s trade surplus narrowed from €22.2bn to €19.1bn, versus a forecasted narrowing to €20.0bn.

According to Destatis,

  • Exports rose by 0.9% on the previous month to €107.8bn, while imports increased by 3.6% to €89.7bn.
  • Compared with Feb-2020, exports fell by 1.2%, while imports increased by 0.9%.

Trade with EU countries:

  • Germany exports to the EU slipped by 0.3%, while imports rose by 0.7% compared with February 2020.
  • To euro area countries, German exports fell 0.9%, with imports falling by 0.6%.
  • Goods to EU countries outside of the euro area rose by 1.2%, with imports increasing by 3.7%.

Trade with non-EU countries:

  • Exports of goods to countries outside of the EU fell by 2.3% when compared with February 2020.
  • Imports to non-EU countries increased by 1.1%.

Trade with the UK

  • Compared with Feb-2020, exports to the UK slid by 12.2% in February 2021.
  • Imports from the UK tumbled by 26.9%.

Other notables:

  • To China, exports jumped by 25.7% when compared with February 2020.
  • By contrast, exports to the U.S fell by 0.6%.

Other stats

From France, the stats were also skewed to the negative, with industrial production sliding by 4.7% in February. Economists had forecast a 0.5% rise following a 3.2% increase in January.

Italian retail sales figures were upbeat, however. In February, retail sales jumped by 6.6%, reversing a 2.7% slide from January.

Market Impact

Ahead of Germany’s factory orders, the EUR had struck a pre-release high and current day high $1.19202 before easing back.

In response to today’s data released, the EUR rose to a post-stat high $1.18991 before falling to a post-stat and current day low $1.18839.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.17% to $1.18934.

Up Next

Wholesale inflation figures are due out of the U.S. The markets are expecting a pickup in wholesale inflationary pressures.

Economists have forecast the annual rate of core wholesale inflation to pickup from 2.5% to 2.7% in March.


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