Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats in the early hours to provide the markets with direction. While there were no stats, however, the RBA meeting minutes were in focus this morning.
For the Aussie Dollar
Salient points from the minutes included:
- The recovery had established strong momentum prior to recent outbreaks of the Delta variant.
- Accompanying lockdowns had introduced a high degree of uncertainty to the outlook for the 2nd half of 2021.
- Members expect economic activity and employment to decline in the 2nd
- The high transmission of the Delta variant raised the possibility that a more gradual reopening would be needed compared with early episodes.
- Under the assumption that further lengthy lockdowns would be limited, the economy was forecast to rebound from the current setback later in the year.
- This is based on an easing of restrictions to follow a similar pattern as previous observed.
- Beyond the virus outbreaks, underlying momentum in the economy, strengthened balance sheets, substantial fiscal support, progress on the vaccination front, and the ability of the economy to adapt supported the recovery outlook.
- For 2023, output was expected to be higher than previously forecast in May.
- Household spending had been tracking strongly in the months prior to the recent lockdowns.
- Consumption continues to recover over April and May before restrictions affected spending in June.
- The board reaffirmed the previously announced change in the rate of bond purchases. However, the bond purchase program will continue to be reviewed in light of economic conditions and the health situation.
- Additionally, the board would be prepared to act in response to any further bad news on the health front.
- In any event, the Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% target range.
- The central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73260 to $0.73150 upon release of the minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.37% to $0.7311.
The Day Ahead
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic data front. Eurozone 2nd estimate GDP numbers and employment change figures for the 2nd quarter are due out later today.
Expect any revisions to the GDP numbers to be key.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1774.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Employment figures are due out later this morning. While earnings is an important consideration, claimant counts and employment change figures will likely have a greater impact.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.14% to $1.3830.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Retail sales, industrial production, and business inventories are due out.
The focus will be on consumption, with any weak retail sales figures likely to materially impact the Dollar.
At the time of writing, the U.S Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.01% to 92.641.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. Housing sector figures for July are due out that will likely have a muted impact on the Loonie.
Market risk sentiment and impact on crude oil prices will be key ahead of the numbers from the U.S.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.13% to C$1.2590 against the U.S Dollar.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.